America needs a strong Republican Party.
Unfortunately, we have a limited, two-party system in this country and both political parties (neither of which is mentioned in the Constitution) have an out-sized role in safeguarding our democracy. It is in America's best interests to have both organizations be strong and healthy. However, the GOP has been in a dysfunctional downward spiral since the '06 elections. 2012 looks to be the year in which the Republican Party is stuck making some difficult choices about what it is going to be, which is sure to infuriate part of the loose coalition on interests of which it is made.
After the Republican party's great defeat in 2006, the sensible thing would have been to go away somewhere and figure out how to reinvent itself for the new century, in which it was confronted with a decreasingly socially conservative and more ethnically diverse electorate. Instead, the GOP floundered and fell back on the stale issues and talking points that had served it so well in the past. In 2008, the party was faced with another defeat. Instead of taking this second consecutive loss as a public rebuke of their excesses over the previous eight years and a sign that they should actually work with the new president to get things done, the Republican leadership retreated to the sanctuary of Fox News (which loves them unconditionally, even when voters don't) and decided to double down on their unpopular policies and made their stated focus to deny Barack Obama a second term.
With the rise of the Tea Party movement, which is comprised of a mix of serious Libertarians concerned about debt and adherence to the Constituion and a very vocal minority of birthers, xenophobes and whackjobs, the Republican Party found a form of life support. Thankfully, they wouldn't have to do the hard work of rebuilding their party and they could still use many of their old talking points (Tax cuts!). The Tea Party fueled in an epic blowout election in 2010 in which Republicans won a historic victory in the House of Representative but were thwarted in the Senate (which has a lower tolerance for cray-cray).
But it is a marriage of convenience, as many of the Tea Party politicians have proven difficult to manage and have, so far, been principled about keeping their campaign promises to their feisty and watchful electorate. Ultimately, the Tea Partiers know that that the Republican party needs them much more than they need the Republican, which puts the party in a difficult position going into next election cycle.
The problem that the party had in their 2010 Senate races and that they have in the 2012 presidential race, is that the candidates who are most likely to prove that they are conservative enough to win primaries are not the candidates who could win general elections. The Republicans have what can be generously called a motley and imperfect pool of presidential candidates, which Bob Cesca referred to as "the Cantina aliens from Star Wars." At present, it looks like even the most electable of them-Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee-would at best give Obama a close race. Of those three, only Huckabee would have a relatively easy time winning the nomination-and he may not even run. The first two would prove highly distasteful to the Tea Party which is likely to dominate primaries and caucuses.
I see three possible scenarios. First, Mitt Romney manages to squeak through enough primary victories in 2nd or 3rd place to secure the nomination, and the Tea Party revolts and either stays home on election day or runs as a thrid party candidate. Or, someone like a Michelle Bachmann ends up becoming a Pyrrhic candidate or the political version of a human sacrifice to the Tea Party. Or, lastly, it works out that a non-entity such as Tim Pawlenty emerges as a consensus candidate. Either way, it is likely that the Republicans have spent all of their capital during the 2010 elections and President Obama will be re-elected, possibly by a large margin if one of the weaker candidates ends up with the nomination. No doubt this will cause much needed finger-pointing and recrimination. One way or the other, in 2012 people are going to look at President Obama and see, despite his flaws, that he is the best that both parties have to offer,which is what elections are all about. Either way, the Republican Party is going to have to deal with the fact that it is not on a sustainable path. After what will be three shellackings within ten years, they are going to have to adapt or become an obsolete political party.
Patrick Garone
www.patrickgarone.com
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