The First Republican Debate

Last night was the first debate of the 2016 election.  In fact, there are so many Republicans running that there were actually two debates.  The prime time debate featured the top ten candidates a mix of former and current governors, iconoclastic senators, and Donald Trump.  So, let's look at it through a Trumpian lens of Winnahs and Loosahs.

WINNERS

Donald Trump.  The Donald went into this the race's improbable front-runner and, much to the Republican establishment's chagrin, he didn't do anything to endanger his position.  I'm sure they were hoping for a meltdown or a storm-off but Trump delivered more of his trademark dickishness that is so popular with a chunk of Republican primary voters.

The most remarkable thing was his casual revelation that he buys and sells politicians in exchange for personal "favors" regardless of their party essentially admitting that he is corrupt and that his allegiance is more to his own interests than to conservative values.  Amazingly, no one called him out on it.  He also bragged about using legal loopholes to his advantage in his business dealings.  Again, no one followed up on this.  Normally, these would be candidate-ruining revelations but Trump's unconventional campaign seems immune to the normal political rules.

John Kasich.  Ohio Governor Kasich went into the debate with a fairly low national profile and toward the bottom of the top tier of candidates polling but he gave a remarkably good debate performance.  He came off positive, compassionate, and touted a solid record of achievements in his two terms as Governor and he is clearly popular in his state which is critical to win in the election. What's more, Kasich seemed the most electable out of the bunch.  He came off as man more practical than ideological as evidenced by his logical decision to implement the Affordable Care Act in Ohio which he correctly saw as benefiting his state.  He is also the only candidate from a swing state who would be able to pull off an easy victory in his state.  That said, he may be perceived as too soft and moderate to make it through the primaries.  If he were to become the nominee, though, the Democrats would be very very afraid.

MEH

Scott Walker.    The union-busting Conservative superstar from Wisconsin turned in an okay debate performance but never really hit it out of the park.

Mike Huckabee.  Huckabee is a skilled politician who was essentially the runner up in 2008 but probably missed his calling in 2012.  He didn't do much to justify his space on the stage last night.

Rand Paul.  Rand Paul would be a stronger candidate if he weren't trying to be so conventional.  He can't seem to make up his mind whether or not he wants to embrace his Libertarian leanings or temper them for the election for fear of being too far out of synch with the Republican party.  This compromises his whole political identity.

Ted Cruz.  Cruz seems thrown off by being only the second craziest person in the room.

LOSERS

Jeb Bush.  Bush is widely considered to be the true front-runner and likely eventual nominee and he had a lot to lose and, unfortunately, he turned in a debate performance that was dull and uninspiring. Combined with his family baggage it may cause some of his supporters to take another look at some of his competitors.  He also may be perceived as another centrist candidate that is forced to tie himself in knots to win the nomination to the point where he is fatally compromised in the general election.  After McCain and Romney there is a real desire to have the nominee be a "real" Conservative.

Ben Carson.  Dr. Carson is another leading candidate for the nomination but turned in a debate performance that was strangely low-key.

Chris Christie. While some will say that Christie missed the boat last election, I maintain that his brand of belligerent East Coast conservatism has always had limited geographic appeal.  He did score some good points on Rand Paul but he also came off as kind of a jerk.  And, while invoking 911 in a political context may have played better right after the attacks, it now seems tasteless and opportunistic.

Marco Rubio.  Rubio seemed waaay out of his league at the debate.  He comes off as far too young and green to be on the stage.  Not only did he not seem presidential but he didn't even seem vice-presidential.