Palin's Brilliant Strategy

Sarah Palin has refused to say whether or not she's going to get in the Presidential race until some unspecified fall date, and at this point she may not even know, herself. She is no doubt hanging back and watching the emerging dynamic of the race to see if there is a place for her in it and smartly avoiding all of the tedious and meaningless pre-race campaigning. Let's not forget that all this pre-campaigning has been going on for over a year before the voting and the caucusing was to start and Palin may have written all of this off as the media pleasuring itself until the real campaign season gets underway.

More than anything, this race is about who can become the candidate to wrestle the nomination away from Mitt Romney, an ideological shape-shifter who is looked at with suspicion by the Tea Party and other conservative activists but one who is an establishment favorite who has spent the five years campaigning and who has enormous resources at his disposal. Sarah Palin is a natural foil for Romney and is still enthusiastically embraced by the activists and voters who turn out for primaries and caucuses. In her absence, two candidates have emerged to become the Anti-Romney. Michele Bachmann joined the race to much fanfare, but has quickly flamed out. More recently, Texas governor Rick Perry has entered the race and quickly became the front-runner but after three weak debate performances and sustained attacks from his rivals, it seems Perry may not have the political skills to win this nomination, let alone defeat President Obama next year.

So a with a resurgent Romney, and faltering Perry and with Michele Bachmann fading fast, now seems like the perfect time for Sarah Palin to jump in. It is also a time which corresponds to the rough time-table that she has given for making her decision. With both of her potential rivals for the conservative Republican vote stumbling, Palin could easily swoop in and finish them off and make a serious bid for the nomination. Her entry into the race alone into the race would be a body blow to Rick Perry.

As much as Palin is the Anti-Romney, it should be noted that she would take some pleasure in taking out Perry as well. Her statements on him have not been kind and she likely sees him as a representative of the Good-Old-Boy network that she took on in Alaska. She would likely aggressively pursue the "Crony Capitalism" angle that Bachmann had leveled at him.

The clock is ticking for Palin 2012. We should know within the next couple of weeks whether she is in or out. This will likely be her only shot at running for President, as Brand Palin has a short shelf life and we have already seen her lose popularity over the last few years. If she doesn't run now, Sarah Palin will likely fade from the political scene as so much of the interest in her was based around an expected Presidential campain.