2012: One Year Out

The grueling 2012 media pre-show is wrapping up! The six to twelve months leading up to the first primary and caucus votes are like a circus sideshow performed to keep the media amused or like a big ball of yarn thrown to a hyperactive kitten. There have been lots of "stories" and crazy front runners like Donald Trump and Michele Bachmann. Now the latest flavor-of-the-week, the self -proclaimed "Black Walnut" Herman Cain is in mid-implosion, clearing the way for the actual campaign to begin.

At this point, the nomination is Mitt Romney's to lose and it's entirely possible that he will. While he's consistently led or came in second in most polls, he has had an issue breaking out of the 20's in the crowded field. What's worse is that Republican voters seem to be desperately jumping from candidate to candidate to find an alternative to Mr. Romney. What's working in the former Massachusetts governor's favor, is that the competition is substantially more flawed than he is.

His only real rival for the nomination will be Texas governor Rick Perry, who came into the race strong and fizzled out with a series of lackluster debate performances. Perry is now making headlines for a rather strange speech he gave last week in which he seemed to be channeling a drunken Jim J. Bullock. A video of highlights from the approximately 25 minute speech has now gone viral.

Unless Perry can pull it together and unite the anti-Romney factions of his party, it looks like Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. Common wisdom has it that Romney is the most electable against the beleaguered Democratic President. In many polls Romney ties with Obama, while the other Republicans trail the President to different extents. But in recent weeks, Democrats have been taking aim at Romney and given signs as to what their strategy will be against the former governor. They are itching to unload on him in a way that his fellow Republicans will not.

While Romney may look the most electable he has some serious weaknesses in the general election. While most candidates are allowed a certain amount of pandering during the primaries only to pivot to the center in the election, Romney will not be able to do that. His long history of dramatic policy changes on a wide variety of issues have not only earned him the distrust of the Republican base-a distrust that will come back to haunt him during the general election-but they are also going to be used against him during the campaign.

Obama's surrogates have already given a preview of this in recent weeks, accusing him of being an opportunistic politician without a "core." This election will look much like the 2004 election in which John Kerry was painted as a Massachusetts flip-flopper. Romney hasn't actually been helping his case with a series of low-key but important gaffes during the campaign, such as claiming to be among the unemployed, or during a recent debate matter-of-factly admitting to firing a company that hired illegal immigrants because, "I'm running for office for Pete's sake." His long history in the financial sector as someone who liquidated companies and shipped jobs overseas will also be used against him.