As the 2012 election shapes up, I want to take a look at each of the potential candidates individually and evaluate their strengths and weaknesses in this historic wide-open contest for the Republican nomination. Let's start with Sarah Palin, since the probability of her becoming an actual candidate seems to be fading fast.
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was first introduced to the nation when she was selected to be Senator John McCain's running mate in 2008. In that very first speech, Sarah Palin was came out swinging and showed an ability to be likable and to attack at the same time. Republicans fell in love with her, and Democrats were a little scared. She was incredibly impressive. In a lot of ways, that first speech was her finest moment on the national stage, for in the weeks that followed, Palin gave a number of embarrassingly bad interviews and gradually became less charming and more shrill. In the years since the election, Palin has shown herself to be increasingly petty and thin-skinned and has been involved in all kinds of childish media feuds. Her main method of communication these days is through her Facebook page.
Immediately after the election, Governor Palin seemed to have a bright future in the Republican Party. Many observers thought that if she spent the next few years preparing, she would be a front runner for 2012 nomination. Instead, Palin made some unexpected choices, such as quitting her governorship halfway through her term and producing a reality show based on her life with her family in Alaska. She has made large amounts of money capitalizing on her fame, all the while keeping the door open to 2012 run. She has cultivated a bizarre and antagonistic relationship with the media and has mainly kept her appearances to the safe-haven of Fox News (where she is employed as a commentator).
In the last year, even many Republicans have soured on her, partially due to her tone-deaf and self-serving response to the Tuscon shootings, to which she was remotely linked through her sometimes violent metaphors. Many Republicans are likely coming to the conclusion that Sarah Palin is now in the Sarah Palin business and may not have the appetite for an uphill run for the Presidency. She may only have been dangling the possibility as a way to keep alive interest in herself.
In the field of 2012 candidates, her poll numbers have been steadily declining while she mulls over a run. I suspect that this may be due to the fact that drawing out her decision feeds into the perception that she lacks seriousness, while other candidates are taking real concrete steps toward running. Possible candidate Michelle Bachmann is often spoken of as a smarter, more serious version of Sarah Palin, and seems to have stolen a lot of her thunder. However, when and if Palin decides to enter the race, people would likely take another look at her and she would still be a formidable force who would likely be able to have a strong showing in many of the primary contests.
While she has always butted heads with the male Republican establishment, she remains popular with kinds of very conservative grass-roots voters who turn out for primaries and caucuses. If nothing else, she has spent the last two years cultivating a close relationship with the Tea Party movement. However, a candidate who quit halfway through her first term may not be palatable to Republican voters who prize consistency and experience more than their Democratic counterparts.
The most interesting question for Brand Palin is how she will be relevant if she does not run for president. Much of the interest and excitement around Sarah Palin has been based on the assumption that she would enter the 2012 contest. Non-candidate Palin is a much less interesting proposition. The Palin phenomenon has always been based on emotion and passion, which are in a finite supply. She is certainly not going to be any more popular in 2016 than she is now. If she is going to run, now is the time.
THE BOTTOM LINE:
PROS: Still popular with the Republican base and would perform strongly in any number of GOP primaries, the most widely known candidate in the field.
CONS: A lot of baggage, the perception that she lacks seriousness and the polls show her loosing to President Obama by large margins. Also, she may not have the discipline or endurance to run.
Patrick Garone
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