The (Possible) Candidates, Part 2: Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, wearing an expensive suit. Of all of the potential Republican candidates, he is the one most loved by the elite party establishment. He is a photogenic ex-governor who has years of experience in the private sector. He is smart, articulate, business-friendly and the scion of a Republican political family. His father was George Romney, a high-profile and principled moderate Republican who served as governor of Michigan for two terms and ran for the presidency in 1968. Mitt Romney has run for office as a moderate in Massachusetts, unsuccessfully for the Senate and successfully for the governorship. He ran against John McCain for the Republican nomination in 2008 and actually won a good amount of delegates before bowing out.

Romney's main weakness in 2008 was that he had blatantly reinvented himself as a social conservative, flatly contradicting positions he had taken earlier in his career running for office in the ultra Blue State of Massachusetts. Ted Kennedy had famously quipped that Romney was "multiple-choice" on abortion. John McCain himself seemed to take great pleasure in pointing out Romney's numerous flip-flops during their debates in 2007 and 2008 (which is quite ironic in retrospect, as McCain has recently done some ideological acrobatics that rival any of Romney's position changes).

So what, then does Romney actually believe? Is he a social moderate in the vein of his father who is now pretending to be conservative to appeal to Republican primary voters? Was he a conservative pretending to be a moderate to win elections in Massachusetts, who now has to put on a big show of being conservative to win the nomination? Has he genuinely evolved his positions in such a radical way? How will he govern, if elected? All of these layers make Romney the Inception candidate, with whom you can never be quite sure what is going on.

This perceived in-authenticity is Romney's greatest weakness and it will hurt him more in 2012 than it did in 2008. Republican primary voters are now more suspicious of politicians than ever and when you have as much inconsistency in your record as Romney, it makes him a tough sell. The fact that he is also considered the "establishment" candidate doesn't do him any favors when much of the vitality in the Republican party comes from the Tea Party activists who seem to consider the Republican party a necessary evil.

If that weren't bad enough, Romney is the chief architect of a statewide health insurance program in Massachusetts that is actually quite similar to the "Obama-care" which is so passionately hated by Republicans. The fact that Romney's health care plan was considered mainstream and uncontroversial only three years ago tells you a lot about how much the party has changed since 2008. In fact, many of the ideas behind both Romney's plan and the national plan were originally conceived of by Republicans in response to Democratic attempts to pass "Universal Healthcare" in the 1990's. Both utilize the existing markets to address the uninsured and were considered solid conservative alternatives to "government run health care." However, this is not the case in the factually challenged and hyperbolic environment of 2011, when both plans are considered a government takeover of the health care system.

Romney's other vulnerability is that he is a Mormon, a religion that is considered little more than a cult by many of the religious conservatives that will dominate some of the early voting states. Soft support among these voters is possibly the reason Romney did not fare better in 2008. For this reason, Romney appears to be willing to cede the Iowa caucuses, where he had a weak showing in 2008 despite having spent large amounts of money in the state.

In the end, the real tragedy is that the Massachusetts Mitt Romney, the business savvy East Coast socially moderate Republican who established a clever and popular health care plan and was a successful governor cannot run as himself. That Mitt Romney might have made a good President. The one who is running in 2011 shows a lack of principle and leadership, unlike his father who stood up to the insurgent right wing of his party. The younger Romney is reduced to uncomfortable flip-flopping on any number of issues to win the nomination. He even downplays his connections to Massachusetts, where he had his single term in elected office. In all likelihood, he would not even be able to win Massachusetts in a general election.

THE BOTTOM LINE

PROS: Percieved as being a serious candidate and strong on the economy which will still be the number one issue on voter's minds in the general election, has a strong organization and support from the Republican establishment, a personal fortune with which he can support his campaign. The Republican party has a long history of nominating its also-rans from the previous election cycle.

CONS: Perceived as being a flip-flopper who will say anything to get elected. His religion is not popular with Christian Conservatives. Does not have a close relationship with the Tea Party. Is associated with a health care program that, while considered a success in Massachusetts, is very much like the Obama health care plan which is reviled by conservatives.

DIRTY SECRET: Speaks French! John Kerry was attacked just for looking French. No self-respecting Republican knows a second language. Let alone French.

Romney could very well win the nomination, but he will emerge a battered candidate of a divided Republican party.

WHO SHOULD PLAY HIM IN A BIO PIC: Jon Hamm.

Patrick Garone
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