While other candidates are offering a variety of weak tea in the 2012 Republican primaries, there is at least one who is the real deal. Ron Paul is, in many ways, the godfather of the Tea Party movement. This Texas congressman is at the Libertarian end of the Republican Party and, until recently, he has been treated derisively by the GOP establishment. However, with the power and popularity of the Tea Party movement, voters will be taking a fresh look at Dr. Paul, should he decide to get back into the race. With his ideological purity and his incredible ability to raise money, Ron Paul could play a much larger role in the 2012 elections than he had in previous races.
The Tea Party in its most pure form is about strict adherence to the U.S. Constitution, small unobtrusive government and low taxes and spending. There is a strong Libertarian influence on the movement and while most potential Republican presidential candidates are recent converts to this cause, Ron Paul has an unassailable record of fiscal and constitutional conservatism. For his consistent record of voting against government spending, Paul has earned the nickname "Dr. No" from his congressional colleagues. In short, Paul was Tea Party before Tea Party was even fashionable.
Ignored by the Republican establishment, Ron Paul has developed a strong grass-roots campaign structure. His previous presidential runs have also shown Paul to have a very committed and web-savvy group of supporters who have been able to raise phenomenal amounts of money for him. He is perhaps the only Republican candidate in recent memory who has been able to attract passionate younger voters. There is no doubt that a considerable chunk of 2008 Paul supporters spun off into the 2009 Tea Party movement. It will be interesting to see how he factors in this new electoral equation.
Paul's Libertarian leanings often have put him at odds with the leadership of the Republican Party, which had become dominated free-spending, interventionist Neo-Conservatives. Aside from adhering to fiscal conservatism and strict constitutionality, his major departure from modern Republican orthodoxy is advocating a foreign policy that some have called "Isolationist." Paul has famously voted against such Republican-led disasters as the Iraq and Afganistan wars and he even opposed the detention center in Guantanamo Bay and the Patriot Act. In one of the debates from the 2008 elections, he correctly referred to the 911 attacks as "blowback," for which he was openly mocked, because many Republicans simply do not publicly acknowledge the existence of a complex real world in which there are consequences to our foreign policy.
What effect will a Paul candidacy have on the restless Republican electorate? Will they be able to look past the many tea-soaked candidates for the real thingl? In light of the many Neo-Conservative foreign policy catastrophes of the Bush years, will they be able to embrace a Paulian worldview? If nothing else, Ron Paul is the most authentic and consistent candidate in the field and that fact may resonate powerfully with Republican voters this cycle. He's very much the anti-Romney.
THE BOTTOM LINE
PROS: In a time in which the Tea Party is influential in the Republican Party, Ron Paul is the only serious candidate with a long and trust-worthy record. If he's going to run, he won't ever be able to have a better showing than now. If nothing else, he may be able to wrest the Tea Party away from the corrupting influences of the Republican Party establishment. He can raise some crazy money.
CONS: He may ultimately be too quirky to be broadly accepted. He has already been painted as a kook by other Republicans. Some of the constitutional justifications for his positions will seem weird and convoluted to mainstream voters. He may have solid logical and constitutional reasons, but he is still against things like Medicare, the Civil Rights Act, and sensible gun control, which are all popular with voters.
TRIVIA: Was punked by Sasha Baron Cohen into thinking that his gay character Bruno wanted to "put a hit" on him. Look for that to show up in a campaign commercial if he starts winning primaries
WHO SHOULD PLAY HIM IN A BIO PIC: Sir Ian McKellan.
Patrick Garone
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